Assessing the sustainability of small hydropower sites in the Citarum Watershed, Indonesia employing CA-Markov and SWAT models

ABSTRACT This study investigates the sustainability of potential small hydropower sites within the Citarum Watershed in West Java, Indonesia. The Citarum River, with a catchment area of 6,090 km2, plays a crucial role in regional water supply and hydroelectric power generation. However, environmental challenges such as deforestation, land use changes, and sedimentation pose significant risks. We employed the CA-Markov model integrated with IDRISI TerrSet software and the Soil and Water Assessment Tool to predict future land use changes and assess water supply, soil erosion, and sedimentation impacts for 2030 and 2040. The analysis revealed diverse trends in water yield across different catchment areas, with some regions showing increased water availability and others facing declines. High erosion and sedimentation rates were identified as critical issues affecting hydropower efficiency. The study highlights the need for comprehensive watershed management strategies, including reforestation, sustainable land management practices, and sediment management, to enhance the sustainability of small hydropower projects. Our findings underscore the importance of integrating environmental considerations into hydropower development to ensure the ecological integrity of the Citarum Watershed.