Fine-tuning weibull distribution parameters in Morocco’s Tarfaya and Tangier wind farms using two-stage swarm optimization

This study assesses the efficacy of particle swarm optimization (PSO) in estimating scale ( c ) and shape ( k ) parameters of the Weibull distribution model for wind energy forecasting at two key wind farm sites in Morocco — Tarfaya in the south and Tangier in the north, utilizing real wind data from 2022. Employing a novel square frequency error objective function to enhance parameter accuracy, the study adopts a two-stage training approach involving recursive least-square estimation and PSO fine-tuning. Validation with artificial data underscores PSO’s effectiveness under diverse wind conditions. Parameter sensitivity analysis identifies four optimal PSO configurations, with the PSO-4 model exhibiting superior performance. Comparative analysis against traditional and heuristic optimization methods consistently demonstrates PSO-4’s lowest root-mean-square error (RMSE) and mean absolute error (MAE), high coefficients of determination ( R 2 ), and shortest computation time. The research highlights PSO-4 model as a precise and efficient tool for Weibull distribution parameter estimation in wind energy forecasting, showcasing robust convergence across both wind farm sites.