Latent Pitfalls in Microstructure-Based Modeling for Thermally Aged 9Cr-1Mo-V Steel (Grade 91)

Abstract A case study was conducted on a mechanistic model development that predicted tensile strength deterioration with thermal aging of 9Cr-1Mo-V steel in supporting the 60-year design life expected for advanced nuclear reactors. For property prediction beyond practical testing times, mechanistic modeling is highly desired, as it taps into the physics of structure-property relationships and therefore can generate reliable results for extrapolation. Meanwhile, as mechanistic models are often complicated, reflecting the intricacy of microstructure and strengthening mechanisms, pitfalls that are difficult to detect often exist. This paper discusses latent pitfalls that are common in mechanistic modeling or specific in this 9Cr-1Mo-V case development through using the ASME V&V 10 standard for evaluating credibility of modeling in materials engineering. Suggestions are also made for enhancing reliability of microstructure-based modeling.