From expectation to action: an empirical study of the role of confidence

We explore formation of expectations and links between expectations and action among Croatian micro-producers of organic fruits and vegetables. Twenty-nine interviews with entrepreneurs from all Croatian counties and the City of Zagreb were conducted. Thematic analysis reveals four recurring themes linking participants’ expectations and action: positive feedback, coordination devices, proximal vs. distal bias and retrospecting prospects. We relate these themes to the valence of expectations (positive, negative or neutral) and situate our findings within broader theoretical frameworks of Barbalet’s theory of confidence and Emirbayer and Mische’s theory of agency. Enjoying acceptance and recognition as members of community-supported agriculture groups, and having access to specific resources as members of associations of organic producers are identified as key drivers of optimism and confidence among the participants.