Thermal resiliency of single-family housing stock under extreme hot and cold conditions

• A framework for assessing thermal resiliency under future climate is proposed. • Extreme hot weather will increase and extreme cold weather will decrease in future. • Passive measures prevent severe indoor conditions during hot extreme weather. • Thermal resiliency of buildings under cold weather is not adequate. • Improving insulation is necessary even in the future climate in cold regions. The building sector has gained attention due to its vulnerability to hazards such as heat waves in summer and power outages in winter, which have led to significant human health issues, including deaths. Thermal resiliency, which refers to a building’s capacity to cope and recover from weather-related events affecting indoor thermal conditions, lacks a systematic assessment approach considering future climate changes. This paper presents a framework for thermal resiliency assessment of buildings under future climatic conditions. The framework evaluates passive survivability under both hot and cold extreme events during a power outage or an HVAC system failure. A case study was conducted by considering code-compliant residential buildings located in different climatic regions. The study indicates that code-compliant buildings may overheat during hot extreme events without air conditioning in the future climate; however, severe indoor conditions can be avoided with passive measures like natural ventilation. The thermal resiliency of buildings under extreme conditions in cold regions is not adequate, as the buildings can reach severe indoor conditions within a four-day power outage, even with passive measures such as movable insulations. The proposed framework and study’s findings can serve as a valuable resource for policy-makers and researchers in developing climate adaptation measures.