Participatory backcasting towards desirable co-produced mobility futures: A case study of MaaS in Greater Manchester

Mobility-as-a-Service (MaaS) has emerged as a model supported by popular discourse on achieving greener, more efficient and equitable future mobility. While technological change is a primary driver for models of development, the policy pathways, implementation and implications of MaaS are complex and unclear. In this paper, we explore the implications and limitations of a participatory approach to co-produced MaaS futures in Greater Manchester (GM). We adapt a backcasting methodology involving two stakeholder workshops to develop shared future visions and action pathways. Our methodology includes a participatory approach to pluralistic vision development and the use of a Three Horizons method for backcasting. This approach provides the opportunity to explore multiple desirable futures and the formulation of action pathways without negating plausible future possibilities. The research identifies multiple policy and collaborative action areas while also revealing limitations in MaaS user agency and unaddressed sustainability concerns related to wider Smart City criticisms. Findings also suggest a lack of adequate theory within current MaaS frameworks to engage with uncertainty, change and adaptive capacity. Future areas of research include the expansion of current frameworks to incorporate alternative framings from planning and complexity theories already attempting to address these dimensions of futures. • Exploration of two future scenarios for MaaS implementation and their uncertainties. • A participatory backcasting approach using Three Horizons for developing action pathways. • Involvement of stakeholders provides local knowledge that is critical for local MaaS futures. • Stakeholder emphasis on the role of technology in shaping the future of MaaS. • Identification of a limitation termed the 'Smart City trap’ and need for user engagement.