Assessing the Variability of Aerosol Optical Depth Over India in Response to Future Scenarios: Implications for Carbonaceous Aerosols

Abstract Air pollution caused by various anthropogenic activities and biomass burning continues to be a major problem in India. To assess the effectiveness of current air pollution mitigation measures, we used a 3D global chemical transport model to analyze the projected optical depth of carbonaceous aerosol (AOD) in India under representative concentration pathways (RCP) 4.5 and 8.5 over the period 2000–2100. Our results show a decrease in future emissions, leading to a decrease in modeled AOD under both RCPs after 2030. The RCP4.5 scenario shows a 48%–65% decrease in AOD by the end of the century, with the Indo‐Gangetic Plain (IGP) experiencing a maximum change of 25% by 2030 compared to 2010. Conversely, RCP8.5 showed an increase in AOD of 29% by 2050 and did not indicate a significant decrease by the end of the century. Our study also highlights that it is likely to take three decades for current policies to be effective for regions heavily polluted by exposure to carbonaceous aerosols, such as the IGP and eastern India. We emphasize the importance of assessing the effectiveness of current policies and highlight the need for continued efforts to address the problem of air pollution from carbonaceous aerosols, both from anthropogenic sources and biomass burning, in India.