The focus on addressing vegetation risks in China should shift from the western past to the eastern future

• Vegetation comprehensive risk decreased to the west, but increased to the east. • NPP and transpiration generally show an increasing trend. • Species richness changes similarly to vegetation risk. • Reduced vegetation risk in QTP and NT is caused by increased runoff. • Increased vegetation risk is due to higher SM in NE and reduced runoff and SPEI in ST. Actively addressing the negative effects of global climate change on vegetation has always been a hot topic of academic concern. How to accurately and comprehensively assess the vegetation risk due to climate change has been rarely reported. By comprehensively considering three dimensions—species structure (species richness), carbon sequestration function (Net Primary Production, NPP), and physiological processes (transpiration)—and based on the prediction of the future distribution characteristics of 3,370 plant species in China, this study quantified the vegetation risk and its driving mechanisms under different Shared Socioeconomic Pathways. The composite index of vegetation risk decreased to the west of the Hu Huanyong Line (NT and QTP regions) but increased to the east (NE and ST regions), with the magnitude of increase growing with the intensification of emission scenarios. In the 2070 s, the proportion of high risk and extremely high-risk areas in the east increased from 14.5 % under SSP126 to 50.0 % under SSP585. NPP and transpiration generally show an increasing trend, and species richness changes similarly to vegetation risk. In the 2070 s under SSP585, 39.2 % of QTP areas see a species richness increase over 50 %, while 33.0 % of ST areas experience a decrease over 30 %. The increase in vegetation risk in the NE region is driven by increased soil moisture, while in the ST region, it is mainly due to decreased runoff and SPEI. Therefore, China should actively respond to the risk of vegetation degradation in the east due to future climate change.