Population asynchrony within and between trophic levels have contrasting effects on consumer community stability in a subtropical lake

Clarifying the effects of biodiversity on ecosystem stability in the context of global environmental change is crucial for maintaining ecosystem functions and services. Asynchronous changes between trophic levels over time (i.e. trophic community asynchrony) are expected to increase trophic mismatch and alter trophic interactions, which may consequently alter ecosystem stability. However, previous studies have often highlighted the stabilising mechanism of population asynchrony within a single trophic level, while rarely examining the mechanism of trophic community asynchrony between consumers and their food resources. In this study, we analysed the effects of population asynchrony within and between trophic levels on community stability under the disturbances of climate warming, fishery decline and de-eutrophication, based on an 18-year monthly monitoring dataset of 137 phytoplankton and 91 zooplankton in a subtropical lake. Our results showed that species diversity promoted community stability mainly by increasing population asynchrony both for phytoplankton and zooplankton. Trophic community asynchrony had a significant negative effect on zooplankton community stability rather than that of phytoplankton, which supports the match-mismatch hypothesis that trophic mismatch has negative effects on consumers. Furthermore, the results of the structural equation models showed that warming and top-down effects may simultaneously alter community stability through population dynamics processes within and between trophic levels, whereas nutrients act on community stability mainly through the processes within trophic levels. Moreover, we found that rising water temperature decreased trophic community asynchrony, which may challenge the prevailing idea that climate warming increases the trophic mismatch between primary producers and consumers. Overall, our study provides the first evidence that population and trophic community asynchrony have contrasting effects on consumer community stability, which offers a valuable insight for addressing global environmental change.