Determinants of Households’ Resilience to Covariate Shocks: Empirical Evidence and Policy Implications from the Kenyan Fisheries and Aquaculture Sectors

This paper analyzes the factors influencing households’ resilience capacities to shocks within Kenya’s fisheries and aquaculture sectors and draws from primary data collected from 419 fish-dependent households across Kisumu, Busia, Mombasa, and Kilifi counties. The sample represents a total of 48,000 fishing households. The study adopted a quasi-longitudinal design and computed the household resilience capacity index (RCI) using the resilience index measurement and analysis (RIMA-II) model. The results indicate that male-headed households’ mean household RCI scores (mean = 45.07 ± 10.43) were statistically significant to that of female-headed households (mean = 38.15 ± 9.25), suggesting that female-headed households are associated with lower resilience capacities than male-headed households. Moreover, the study identifies differences in resilience levels across various occupations within the sector. For instance, RCI scores among fish traders (mean = 40.71 ± 9.97), a function performed mainly by women, statistically differed (p < 0.005) from male-dominated cage farming (mean = 48.60 ± 10.47), whereas RCI scores at the production level for fisher folks (mean = 44.89 ± 10.09) and pond farmers (mean = 44.04 ± 12.07) showed no statistical difference (0 > 0.05. Additionally, households with more income sources tend to have higher resilience capacities. Seasonality in fishing cycles limited households’ ability to recover from climate-induced shocks; the more months without fishing activity, the less the odds of recovery from shocks (OR = 0.532, 95% CI [0.163, 0.908], p = 0.022). Furthermore, households that lacked guaranteed market access and inputs during COVID-19 were less likely to recover during and after the shocks (OR = 0.401, 95% CI [0.161, 0.999], p = 0.05). Households organized in cooperatives with better access to credit showed a higher chance of recovery. The study recommends (a) adopting gender-sensitive approaches in fisheries and aquaculture interventions to empower women in trade, (b) strengthening policies to enhance access and adoption of climate-smart technologies such as cage fish farming, (c) promoting livelihood diversification to sustain households’ income during fishing off-seasons, and (d) enhancing market linkages in the fish value chain through coordinated producer organizations. Further research should explore the possibilities of introducing index-based weather insurance and other tested suitable safety nets for the fisheries and aquaculture sector.