Decoupling Analysis of Economic Growth and Carbon Emissions in Xinjiang Based on Tapio and Logarithmic Mean Divisia Index Models

In light of China’s ambitious goals to peak carbon emissions by 2030 and achieve carbon neutrality by 2060, this study uniquely explores the decoupling dynamics between economic growth and carbon emissions in Xinjiang using panel data from 2006 to 2020 across various prefectures and cities. By employing the Tapio decoupling elasticity index and the Logarithmic Mean Divisia Index (LMDI) decoupling model, we found that Xinjiang, as a whole, has not fully decoupled its carbon emissions from economic growth, with overall emissions below the national average. The carbon emissions growth rate in Xinjiang has significantly decreased from 17.7% during 2005–2010 to 3.35% in 2015–2020, with weak decoupling particularly evident in northern and eastern regions. To achieve full decoupling, it is imperative for policymakers to reform the economic growth model in northern Xinjiang and restructure the energy mix in eastern Xinjiang. Additionally, the promotion of low-carbon industries and the enhancement of green energy efficiency are crucial for advancing the region’s sustainable development.