A multigroup random-intercept cross-lagged panel model for Finnish secondary school students in frame of situated expectancy-value theory

The aim of this study is to examine both within-person and between-person associations of academic self-concept and task values in literacy and mathematics to identify the most promising motivational construct to prevent motivational decline during school transitions. The sample included 3636 students (average age at the start: 15.73 years, SD: 0.32 years) followed up three times from lower secondary school (T1) to the third year (T3) of upper secondary education, either in vocational or academic tracks. Multi-group random intercept cross-lagged panel models detected several spillover (cross-lagged) effects between self-concept and task values in mathematics but not in literacy. There were also marginal but significant differences between students from different educational tracks in both subjects. Overall, utility value and academic self-concept in mathematics were found to be the most promising motivational constructs in changing motivational beliefs, thus presenting important starting points in motivational interventions. This study highlights that spillover effects are more pronounced in maths than in literacy, emphasising the need for tailored interventions in mathematics education. Moreover, the potential disruption in students' motivational beliefs during school transitions suggests the importance of ensuring continuity in support to help mitigate the impact of these transitions. While our results indicate limited carryover effects, it is possible that school transitions are experienced as breaks in motivational development. The role of utility value in exhibiting spillover effects over school transitions in both maths and literacy suggests the significance of emphasising the practical relevance of academic subjects to sustain students' motivation. Additionally, recognising the superior role of academic self-concept in maths in spillover effects on task values underscores the importance of nurturing students' confidence and beliefs in their own mathematical abilities. • Task values and success expectancies are partly reciprocally interwoven. • There are more spillover effects in maths than in literacy. • School transitions may disrupt students' motivational beliefs. • Utility value shows spillover effects over school transition in both maths and literacy. • Most spillover effects on task values in maths come from academic self-concept.