Machine Learning Coffee Price Predictions

Most market players have found great significance in price projections for basic agricultural commodities for a substantial duration. We look at the daily price of coffee that is released in this research in order to tackle the issue. The analytical sample runs from 2 January 2013 to 10 April 2024, a period of more than 12 years. A significant influence on the business sector comes from the price series under investigation. Specifically, in this particular situation, Gaussian process regression models are developed using Bayesian optimization techniques and cross-validation processes. Thus, this circumstance prompts the development of price forecasting methodologies. Using our empirical forecasting technique, we produce relatively accurate price projections for the out-of-sample assessment period, which runs from 3 January 2022 to 10 April 2024. It was found that price forecasts of coffee had a relative root mean square error of 2.0500%. With the availability of price forecasting models, investors and governments can make educated decisions about the coffee market given that they have access to the required data.

Authors

Institutions

Publication Details

Journal
Journal of Uncertain Systems
Published
2024-09-13
DOI
https://doi.org/10.1142/s1752890924500235
Citations
75
Primary Topic
Wine Industry and Tourism
Type
article
Field-Weighted Citation Impact
69.79
Controls
|||
ALL TIME
JAN
FEB
MAR
APR
MAY
JUN
JUL
AUG
SEP
OCT
article

Machine Learning Coffee Price Predictions

Bingzi Jin, Xiaojie Xu
75 citations
Journal of Uncertain Systems
Wine Industry and Tourism
69.79
article

Machine Learning Coffee Price Predictions

Bingzi Jin, Xiaojie Xu
article en
75 citations

Abstract

Most market players have found great significance in price projections for basic agricultural commodities for a substantial duration. We look at the daily price of coffee that is released in this research in order to tackle the issue. The analytical sample runs from 2 January 2013 to 10 April 2024, a period of more than 12 years. A significant influence on the business sector comes from the price series under investigation. Specifically, in this particular situation, Gaussian process regression models are developed using Bayesian optimization techniques and cross-validation processes. Thus, this circumstance prompts the development of price forecasting methodologies. Using our empirical forecasting technique, we produce relatively accurate price projections for the out-of-sample assessment period, which runs from 3 January 2022 to 10 April 2024. It was found that price forecasts of coffee had a relative root mean square error of 2.0500%. With the availability of price forecasting models, investors and governments can make educated decisions about the coffee market given that they have access to the required data.

Journal of Uncertain SystemsVol. 17(04)
North Carolina State University (US)
Openalex Percentile: Top 0%
Wine Industry and Tourism
69.79
AI Navigator

Ask Laika to Summarize, Analyze, and Connect papers live on the map.

Summarize Papers & Methodologies

Extract key findings, datasets, and comparative methods across publications.

Benchmark Rankings & Visual Analytics

Rank top research institutions, authors, funders, topics, and journals by Field-Weighted Citation Impact (FWCI) and paper volume with instant charts.

Connect Distant Disciplines

Bridge topological clusters on the map to find hidden collaborative intersections.