Intergenerational Transmission of Divorce in Sweden, 1920–2015

Many studies demonstrate an intergenerational transmission of divorce with a focus primarily on more recent decades; however, the extent to which this relationship is deeply rooted or has changed over time remains unclear. Explanations, including sociodemographic and interpersonal factors, have been offered as links between parental divorce and the stability of offspring's marriage. We use individual-level longitudinal data from the Scanian Economic-Demographic Database to estimate the intergenerational transmission of divorce among first marriages in Sweden over the period 1920-2015. Our investigation focuses on the correlation between parental divorce and offspring's divorce during the transition from a low- to a high-divorce regime. Findings reveal surprising stability in the transmission despite fundamental societal change over the years. Notably, the risk of divorce is highest when either the wife or both spouses have experienced parental divorce. Moreover, the transmission of divorce across time appears to be stronger and more stable for women than for men. These results suggest the intergenerational transmission of divorce is part of the divorce transition and highlight the role of women's independence in this intricate but not yet fully understood process.