Climate covariate selection influences MaxEnt model predictions and predictive accuracy under current and future climates

The performance and transferability of species distribution models (SDMs) depends on a number of ecological, biological, and methodological factors. There is a growing body of literature that explores how the choice of climate covariate combinations and model parameters can affect predictive performance, but relatively few that delve into covariate reduction methods and the optimisation of model parameters, and the resulting spatial and temporal transferability of those models. The present work used the citrus pest, Diaphorina citri Kuwayama (Hemiptera: Psyllidae), to illustrate how MaxEnt models trained on the insect’s native range in Asia varied in their predictions of climatic suitability across the introduced range when eight different covariate reduction methods were applied during model building. Additionally, it showed how model sensitivity varied across these different covariate combinations using three sets of independently validated occurrence points in the invaded range of the psyllid. Climatically suitable areas for D. citri differed by as much as two-fold between the best and worst-performing models in selected areas. Great care should be taken in the selection of the highest-performing predictor combinations and model parameter settings for SDMs, particularly in the case of invasive species where the assumption of environmental equilibrium is likely violated in the introduced range. Understanding how the predictive ability of SDMs can be influenced by the methodological choices made during the model building phase is vital to ensuring that ecological and invasion management programmes do not over- or underestimate climatic suitability and subsequent invasion risk. • Climatic suitability and model sensitivity varied across covariate combinations. • Up to a two-fold underestimate of suitable climate reported in worse performing models. • Low model transferability found in the African invaded range of Diaphorina citri . • Tuned and default MaxEnt model parameters were not significantly different. • Pest monitoring and management could be affected by model accuracy.