Effect of Data Quality and Data Quantity on the Estimation of Intrinsic Solubility: Analysis Based on a Single-Source Data Set

Aqueous solubility is one of the most important physicochemical properties of drug molecules and a major driving force for oral drug absorption. To date, the performance of in silico models for the estimation of solubility for novel chemical space is limited. To investigate possible reasons and remedies for this, the Johnson and Johnson in-house aqueous solubility data with over 40,000 compounds was leveraged. All data were generated through the same high-throughput assay, providing a unique opportunity to explore the relationship between data quality, quantity, and model estimations. Six intrinsic solubility data sets with different sizes and noise levels were generated by making use of three different approaches: (i) inclusion or exclusion of amorphous solid residue, (ii) measured or experimental log <i>D</i> to identify the intrinsic solubility, and (iii) adopting or omitting a quality check process in the data processing workflow. A random forest regressor was trained on the data sets with three different sets of descriptors calculated from RDKit, ADMET predictor, or Mordred, and the performances were evaluated with nested cross-validation as well as ten refined test sets. The models confirm, as expected, that with the same data set size, high-quality data leads to better model performance; however, also, models trained with larger data sets containing analytical variability can give equally accurate estimations compared to models trained with small, clean, and diverse data sets. However, noise introduced by including the presence of amorphous solid postsolubility measurement in the training data set cannot be overcome by increasing data size, as they are introducing a biased systematic positive error in the data set, confirming the importance of critical data review. Finally, two top-performing models were tested on the first test set from the second solubility challenge, achieving RMSE values of 0.74 and 0.72 and log <i>S</i> ± 0.5 of 46 and 48%, respectively. These results demonstrated improved performance compared to those reported in the findings of the competition, highlighting that a single-source curated data set can enhance the prediction of intrinsic solubility.