Monitoring forest dynamics between 1987-2023: an NDVI analysis of three dominant species in Paphos Forest, Cyprus

Species-level monitoring in satellite remote sensing is crucial, providing detailed insights into biodiversity and ecological interactions. Each species responds differently to environmental shifts, and their health directly impacts ecosystem functioning. In this study, a comprehensive temporal analysis of vegetation dynamics was conducted in the Paphos forest in Cyprus, a unique ecological region hosting a variety of endemic species. This study focuses on the three dominant species: Pinus brutia, Quercus Alnifolia, and Cedrus Brevifolia. Monthly Landsat satellite images (Landsat 4,5, 7, 8, and 9) from 1987 to 2023 have been processed to assess the species vegetation dynamics with the Normalised Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) compared with precipitation derived from the Climate Hazards Group InfraRed Precipitation with Station data (CHIRPS). Image harmonisation was performed via the Google Earth Engine (GEE), applying a scaling factor within the Landsat missions to ensure consistency and comparability across the different Landsat missions. The results revealed an overall increase in NDVI values for all three species during the study period, possibly related to the reforestations conducted in the last decades combined with the increased precipitation for the years of study. Contrary to the environmental stress (e.g., climate change, deforestation, etc) that the Mediterranean forests have been facing in the last century, our results indicate an enhancement in the health and productivity of these species over the past three decades. Understanding these temporal changes is crucial for biodiversity conservation and forest management. The findings of this study contribute significantly to our understanding of forest dynamics while delivering valuable information for future conservation strategies in the Paphos forest.