Total Impacts of Alternative Energy Systems

A number of alternative energy systems are simulated in a future time period with the terminal year set in the year 2000. The several systems include the present conventional system extended to the end of the century on a surprise-free basis; all-electric systems based on various conversion cycles, including conventional steam plants, magnetohydrodynamics (MHD) and nuclear power plants; and total energy systems based on fuel cell conversion and synthetic gas obtained from coal. Some exotic-type systems are also examined, including nuclear fusion, solar energy, dry geothermal power and superconductivity. These simulated systems are assessed as to the possible impacts of major influences that could affect their probabilities of success and their emergence as viable systems. The influences considered are the limits of the finite resource base for certain resources; cumulative energy requirements forecast to the year 2000; relative system efficiencies; economics; environmental restrictions and the chronological time-frame for possible emergence of each system. Quantification of the several systems and their impact assessments is by necessity conducted on a very broad basis. No attempt is made to achieve precise realization of either systems or impacts.