A Probabilistic Approach to Assessing Passenger Survival in Aircraft Accidents Near an Airport Area

ABSTRACT This study proposes a probabilistic model to assess the likelihood of passenger survival in fires resulting from aircraft accidents. The model evaluates the risk of passenger death in a fire, considering the type of aircraft and airline. By comparing the time available for passengers to fully evacuate a burning plane with the time required for evacuation using modern means and technologies, onboard rescue equipment, and the qualifications of crew members and rescue personnel, we introduce a comprehensive approach to quantify passenger survival rates. Additionally, the concept of the hazard coefficient is introduced, which accounts for factors such as cabin temperature and toxic components.