Agricultural Service Trade and Green Development: A Perspective Based on China’s Agricultural Total Factor Productivity

Agricultural service trade is closely related to the promotion of the sustainable development of China’s agriculture and is necessary for comprehensive rural revitalization. To clarify the relationship between trade in agricultural services and agricultural green total factor productivity (AGTFP) from a macroscopic perspective and then analyze the acting path and threshold effect, can provide an important reference for improving agriculture’s green level and realizing the sustainable development of agriculture. This paper uses the provincial panel data of China from 2007 to 2022 to measure agricultural green total factor productivity (AGTFP) using the SBM-GML model and explores the impact of agricultural service trade on AGTFP with the help of the fixed effect model, the mediation effect model, and the threshold model. According to this study: (1) Trade in agricultural services can significantly increase AGTFP. (2) Mechanism analysis shows that trade in agricultural services can promote AGTFP through promoting industrial agglomeration, enhancing technological innovation, and improving factor allocation. (3) Heterogeneity analysis shows that trade in agricultural services has a more obvious role in promoting AGTFP in the eastern region and the main grain marketing area. (4) The threshold effect finds that the promotion of agricultural services trade on AGTFP will gradually increase as the level of government support rises. Therefore, China should actively promote the development of agricultural service trade, implement the concept of sustainable development, improve the level of government support, and promote the improvement in agricultural total factor productivity and sustainable development.