СТАТИСТИЧЕСКИЙ АНАЛИЗ И ПРОГНОЗИРОВАНИЕ ДИНАМИКА УРОЖАЙНОСТИ ПШЕНИЦЫ В РЕСПУБЛИКЕ УЗБЕКИСТАН

In almost every area there are phenomena that are interesting and important to study in their development and change over time. Observations of certain phenomena, the nature of which changes over time, are carried out in an ordered sequence, which is called a time series. The goals of studying time series are to strive to predict the future based on knowledge of the past and control the process, to describe the characteristic features of a series based on a limited amount of information. In the article, using the method of statistical analysis of time series, the statistical regularity of the dynamics series (yt) - average wheat yield in the Republic of Uzbekistan (based on materials from the Central Statistical Office of the Republic of Uzbekistan for 2002-2022) is studied. Point and interval estimates for the average wheat yield were constructed with a 95% guarantee, explicit types of trends were determined, and wheat yield was predicted for subsequent years. Using Durbin-Watson statistical tests, it was established that the average wheat yield has an autocorrelation dependence. Consequently, the wheat yield in the Republic this year depends on the wheat yield of previous and subsequent years.