SAF Implementation in 2027: A Case Study of Indonesia

Indonesia has a vision to reach net zero emissions in 2060. To reach the target set, the Indonesian government generates Enhance National Determined Contribution (ENDC). One of the activities on ENDC that is set to reduce emissions is using biofuel. Biofuel in the aviation industry is widely known as Sustainable Aviation Fuel (SAF). Indonesia already conducts test flights using SAF produced by SOE, PT Pertamina (group), to showcase Indonesia’s capabilities in producing SAF. The next step after conducting the test flight is preparing the implementation plan. Led by the Ministry of Maritime and Investigation, the current roadmap for SAF implementation is being made, including the implementation strategy. The study was conducted by assessing PESTLE analysis and Porter 5’s Forces analysis to understand existing conditions in Indonesia. Then, the scenario planning is generated by collecting data from in-depth interviews with all stakeholders involved, such as jet fuel producers and suppliers, the Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources, the Ministry of Transportation, aircraft OEM, academics, and airlines in Indonesia. Eleven driving forces were identified in this study. Four scenarios are generated by combining the most impactful driving force, the SAF price, and the most uncertain driving force, the regulations for airlines. The desired scenario for the future is determined by the interviewee and then marked as an ideal condition in the future.