“Two zones and three centers” distribution and suitable areas shift of an evergreen oak in subtropical China under climate scenarios

Understanding the impact of climate change on the geographical distribution of species is a fundamental requirement for biodiversity conservation and resource management. <i>Quercus oxyphylla</i>, an evergreen oak endemic to China, plays a crucial role in maintaining the ecological stability in subtropical regions and high economic value attributed to its dark and high-density heartwood, but the existing resources are close to endangered. Currently, limited knowledge exists regarding its distribution and potential influences of climate change on suitable areas. This study utilized 63 occurrence records and Biomod2 platform, to predict changes in suitable areas for <i>Q. oxyphylla</i> under future climate change. The results revealed that (1) <i>Q. oxyphylla</i> showed a pattern of three disjunctive geographical centers in the eastern subregion of subtropical evergreen broad-leaved forest region (IV_A): Qinling-Daba Mountains, Nanling Mountains and Wuyi Mountains center. Currently, the highly suitable areas concentrated in two zones divided by the Yangtze River, that is, the northern subtropical evergreen and deciduous broad-leaved forest zone (IV_Aii) and the mid-subtropical evergreen broad-leaved forest zone (IV_Ai). (2) The temperature-related variables, such as annual temperature range (Bio7), the mean diurnal range (Bio2), and annual mean temperature (Bio1), were identified as the key determinants of the distribution pattern. Because of its considerable climatic variations in temperature and water conditions, <i>Q. oxyphylla</i>'s habitat displayed a wider climate niche and strong physiological tolerance to climate change. (3) Under future climate scenarios, the suitable area of the species was expected to overall expand with significant regional differences. The suitable area in IV_Ai was expected to expand significantly northward while that in IV_Aii was expected to gradually shrink. To address the impact of climate change, it is necessary to develop conservation plans focused around the three distribution centers, implement localized and regional conservation policies, and conduct educational outreach among local people.