A Hybrid Neural Network for Real-Time OD Demand Calibration Under Disruptions

Abstract This study proposes a real-time OD demand calibration framework that integrates data-driven origin–destination (OD) demand calibration with black-box microscopic stochastic traffic simulators. To enable bi-directional information exchange between the data-driven OD calibration and the non-differentiable traffic simulator, a metamodel-based backpropagation scheme is developed, allowing simultaneous updates of both the data-driven model and simulator parameters. In addition, the data-driven model is pre-trained offline using the metamodel to accelerate the initial calibration process. Validation through two toy networks and a Tokyo expressway corridor case study demonstrates the framework’s capability to dynamically adapt to evolving traffic conditions under various disruption scenarios. The results highlight the potential of hybrid approaches that couple data-driven and model-based techniques to support proactive traffic management, offering substantial improvements over conventional reactive systems.