Empirical prediction on boilover onset and impact for liquid hydrocarbon fire in atmospheric storage tank

Abstract Boilover can occur several hours after the fuel in a storage tank caught fire. The delayed occurrence is an unknown strong parameter when managing the emergency response operations. Those managing response operations must be aware of the boilover potential and take the precautions to ensure safety. Modelling the phenomenon enables predicting crucial event features and assists in highlighting safety measures, with a key focus on the ignition‐to‐boilover time interval. This study focused on the predictive empirical tool development aimed at estimating the boilover onset time and consequences. This was achieved through series of small‐scale boilover experiments, followed by validation using cases of boilover incidents. The results revealed a linear relationship between the boilover onset time and the initial depth of fuel. Consequently, an empirical correlation was derived to predict the time to boilover. The developed correlation has demonstrated its ability to offer conservative predictions while also exhibiting agreement with both the observed onset time and consequences of boilover events. The reported time to boilover for the Czechowice‐Dziedzice incident is 1050 min, while the predicted time is 1413.2 min. The model showed reasonable agreement with the Amoco Refinery incident. The predicted boilover time of 811.3 min aligns with the boilover incident, reported as 790 and 925 min, respectively. It is evident that the empirical model can predict the time to boilover to a similar order of magnitude. Certain considerations in the development of effective strategies in handling fire scenario with boilover potentials can be assessed using the predictive tool developed.