Alterations in Suitable Cultivation Area for Scutellaria baicalensis under Future Climatic Scenarios in China: Geodetector-Based Prediction

The dried roots of Scutellaria baicalensis (S. baicalensis) have been widely used as a traditional medicine. Recently, climate change and human activities have caused the degeneration of its wildlife habitat. However, there is rare knowledge on the effect and interactive effect of different variables on the spatial heterogeneity of S. baicalensis and how the pattern of suitable cultivation area in China would shift in response to climate change. Based on the Geodetector and Habitat Suitability Index (HSI) method, we proposed an assessment model to identify the critical environmental variable(s) affecting the distribution of suitable cultivation area for S. baicalensis in China and to project its shift under climate change. The results showed that soil and mean annual temperature are two determining variables in its spatial heterogeneity in China. Compared to 1981–2010, future climate change may result in a decrease in its suitable area, and yet may result in an increase in the extremely suitable area (about 1.00–1.35 million km2). S. baicalensis in the southern and northwestern part of its current distribution and the southwestern part and small area of northern China may experience expansion during the 21st century, while S. baicalensis in southern China, the Huang-Huai-Hai plain, and the midwest of northwestern China may experience contractions. Meanwhile, climate warming is expected to shift its distribution northwest through an expansion at the northern (at least 84 km) and western (at least 62 km) boundary and contraction at the southern (at least 529 km) boundary, respectively. These results could provide valuable information to policy-makers for the conservation and scientific introduction of S. baicalensis.