Exploring the relationship between small and medium-sized enterprises innovation and organizational performance: a prospective study on the industrial sector in Ecuador

Purpose This study aims to explore the relationship between the innovation capacity and performance of manufacturing firms in the Ecuadorian pharmaceutical and chemical sectors using strategic foresight analysis. Design/methodology/approach From an extensive literature review, the fundamental variables related to manufacturing firms’ innovation for better performance were identified. Six hypotheses and actions were proposed related to financing, economic resources, capacities and research and development. Several scenarios were tested through foresight methodology to determine the more appropriate to be implemented by manufacturing firms over the next five years. Findings Scenario 01, where all the hypotheses resulted positive, has a 15.3% probability of occurrence. The results offer a relevant understanding of the behavior of the variables proposed as strategic actions for the sector. Originality/value To the best of the authors’ knowledge, foresight methodology is applied for the first time to analyze the manufacturing sector in Ecuador. The authors propose a plan of action from the strategic scenario identified in this study, supporting the development of the industrial sectors under study.