The Impact of Prospect Theory on Asset Forecasting: A Comparative Study Based on Random Forest and Linear Regression

This study focuses on the application of predictive models and prospect theory in the field of machine learning to predict financial asset prices. Here, the linear regression and random forest algorithms were employed to forecast the price values and fluctuations of two different financial assets: the S&P 500 index and Bitcoin prices. Meanwhile, this study compared the performance of different financial asset datasets before and after the introduction of prospect theory models. Through calculation and comparative analysis, this article provides an in-depth discussion on the predictive performance of regression models and classification models. The research results indicate that in most cases, simple linear regression models have high prediction accuracy. Meanwhile, this paper also found that introducing prospect theory can effectively improve the accuracy of prediction models for specific financial assets. This result has a positive impact on the financial industry, helping to optimize risk management and investment decision-making, improving efficiency at the market level and promoting information transparency, while also promoting the development of emerging financial formats in financial innovation