Evolutionary cycles in a model of nestmate recognition

Nestmate recognition is a widespread phenomenon and evolutionary important trait in the social insects. Yet evidence accumulates that the responses to non‐nestmates varies more than previously thought. We present a simple frequency‐dependent cost‐benefit model of nestmate recognition to understand conditions that might or might not favor the evolution of nestmate recognition that is based on cuticular hydrocarbon (CHC) profiles. Costs accounted for are costs for 1) maintaining a functional recognition system and 2) keeping a CHC profile that may be sub‐optimal regarding other functionalities like desiccation control, whereas the benefit of recognition is the prevention of nest raiding by other colonies. Unsurprisingly, the model indicates that recognition systems only evolve if costs are sufficiently low and benefits sufficiently high. In addition, the model suggests that nestmate recognition is more likely to evolve if colony turnover is fast (colony life‐expectancy is low). Our model creates evolutionary cycles that are typically longest under parameter combinations that just allow the evolution of recognition systems at all; the system expresses attributes of a rock‐paper‐scissors game. The model shows that a breakdown of nestmate recognition may occur under changing ecological situations, e.g. as a result of reduced intraspecific competition or increased abiotic stress. We speculate that such effects may be involved in the formation of supercolonies during invasions. Nestmate recognition may have evolved more to prevent interspecific predation or parasitism by antagonists that managed to mimic their host's CHC profile than as a mechanism to prevent exploitation by conspecific colonies.