Estimating the market share of electric motorcycles: A system dynamics approach with the policy mix and sustainable life cycle costs

Introducing electric vehicles is critical to maintaining air quality and reducing carbon emissions. The Indonesian government has issued several regulations to stimulate the diffusion of electric vehicles. This research attempts to forecast the electric vehicle market share, especially electric motorcycles, by involving the policy mix and sustainable life cycle costs. We propose a system dynamics approach that takes into account a policy mix including 0% down payment without credit interest subsidies, tax abolition, expansion of charging station network, and sustainable life cycle costs, i.e., total cost of ownership, social, and environment. The system dynamics model has four modules: the electric motorcycle cost, the conventional motorcycle cost, the economy module, and the consumer market. The simulation results show that the electric motorcycle market share will increase positively in 2021–2030, reaching 5.7% in 2030. Based on the scenario simulation results, providing more charging stations and vehicle tax abolition can significantly boost the market share of electric motorcycles in Indonesia. The study provides valuable insights for policymakers in formulating more appropriate policy instruments to promote electric vehicle diffusion in Indonesia. Highlights • System dynamics is designed to explore the effect of the Government's policy mix on electric motorcycle (EM) diffusion. • EM sales and market share are also estimated using system dynamics. • We formulate a life cycle costs model that considers social and environmental costs. • The simulation results show that the estimated EM sales are close to the government's target. • The extent of charging stations is a policy that significantly affects EM sales.