A comparison of climate drivers’ impacts on silage maize yield shock in Germany

Abstract Extreme weather events have become more frequent and severe with ongoing climate change, with a huge implication for the agricultural sector and detrimental effects on crop yield. In this study, we compare several combinations of climate indices and utilized the Least Absolute Shrinkage and Selection Operator (LASSO) to explain the probabilities of substantial drops in silage maize yield (here defined as “yield shock” by using a 15th percentile as threshold) in Germany between 1999 and 2020. We compare the variable importance and the predictability skill of six combinations of climate indices using the Matthews Correlation Coefficient (MCC). Finally, we delve into year-to-year predictions by comparing them against the historical series and examining the variables contributing to high and low predicted yield shock probabilities. We find that cold conditions during April and hot and/or dry conditions during July increase the chance of silage maize yield shock. Moreover, a combination of simple variables (e.g. total precipitation) and complex variables (e.g. cumulative cold under cold nights) enhances predictive accuracy. Lastly, we find that the years with higher predicted yield shock probabilities are characterized mainly by relatively hotter and drier conditions during July compared to years with lower yield shock probabilities. Our findings enhance our understanding of how weather impacts maize crop yield shocks and underscore the importance of considering complex variables and using effective selection methods, particularly when addressing climate-related events.