Managing uncertainty in product and process design for the circular factory

Abstract In the circular factory, uncertain attributes of object instances and process steps are found at diverse occasions. Even if uncertainty can also be found to some extent in linear production, the high variation of product attributes of used objects causes the process steps in the circular factory to generate a much higher variability of the properties of the objects handled in circular processes. In consequence, a methodology is needed to model, handle and manage uncertainties at all relevant situations within the circular factory. In contrast to linear production, the uncertainty of attributes cannot be extended to an object class (with the same production history), but must be assigned to each object instance (with its own history) individually. In this contribution, the basic concepts for managing uncertainty in the circular factory are introduced. As a common basis, probabilities are used to express uncertainty, thus being compatible with the traditional and proven concepts of measurement science and stochastics. To describe the individual information state of object instances, it is complemented with a joint probability distribution describing all relevant object attributes. Some examples for processes within the circular factory demonstrate how uncertainty is considered to manage the uncertainty related challenges of used objects.