Managing power supply in small nations: A case on Belize's Idiosyncratic system

Power mix risk management is a crucial aspect of energy sector decision-making. Amidst disruptive events, emerging economies struggle to sustain recovery and long-term progress, necessitating a focus on mitigating the impact of major incidents. However, power mix risk management often overlooks the pathways through which the system's structure is exposed to risks. Using a qualitative three-step approach, this study investigated inherent risks of the structure and managerial practices Belize's power mix, mapping its structure and actors, identifying underlying causes and exposure pathways, classifying risks into five major dimensions, and characterizing each dimension as complex, uncertain, or ambiguous. Belize's structural choices presented systemic paradoxes such as the application of fixed-cost models for volatile local renewable sources, the actor's ambiguity on key elements of the supply system, including reliance on electricity imports and the retirement of local supply assets, being perceived as a lack of commitment, increasing the threat of investing in the domestic supply market, and regulations seeking to attract investment and de-risk electricity supply projects that in turn locked-out new investment and technologies due to market size. Further, system mitigation practices were limited and primarily based on regulatory interventions, with risk dimensions varying and sometimes related, suggesting a need for expanded and consolidated mitigation styles. • Growing need to identify, measure, verify, and manage risks. • Assesses the inherent risks of the structure and managerial practices • Mapping actors, identifying exposure pathways, classifying and characterizing dimensions • Systemic paradoxes in decision-making and actor ambiguity in policy • Mitigation practices largely limited to regulatory intervention