Carbon emissions reduction path of logistics industry in Hebei, China: based on internal factors

Abstract To explore the optimal carbon emissions reduction path for the logistics industry in Hebei Province, China, this paper considers internal factors such as logistics agglomeration, transportation structure, and technology innovation as regulatory measures. The system dynamics method is employed to simulate the effects of carbon emissions reduction for each factor. Then, based on examining the interactive relationships among these internal factors, the paper proposes the optimal carbon emissions reduction path for Hebei Province’s logistics industry under different sequences of implementing the three measures. The results indicate that logistics agglomeration, transportation structure, and technological innovation can contribute to varying degrees of carbon emissions reduction in logistics. By 2030, it is projected that logistics agglomeration will result in a reduction of 21,799 million tons of carbon emissions while transportation structure and technology innovation will lead to reductions of 23,459 million tons and 20,778 million tons respectively compared to the BAU scenario. Furthermore, intricate interactions exist among these three internal measures. The optimal path for reducing carbon emissions is TSI-AGD-LTI. Specifically, to optimize the transportation structure first, relieve the pressure of logistics carbon emissions aggravated by logistics agglomeration, promote the cross-regional transfer of logistics carbon emissions, and then improve the level of technology innovation to strengthen further the logistics carbon emissions reduction effect of transportation structure adjustment.