Evaluation of urban low-carbon development efficiency: evidence from 30 cities in China

Abstract With the acceleration of global urbanization, the issues faced by urban development are becoming increasingly apparent. Some countries and regions have placed less emphasis on low-carbon emissions in the development process and prioritized urban development. However, blindly pursuing rapid urbanization has led to excessive urban carbon emissions, which outweigh the gains. Therefore, based on panel data from 30 cities in China from 2010 to 2019, this study combines the super-efficiency slacks-based measure (SBM) model and the Malmquist index, taking urban carbon emissions as undesirable outputs, to evaluate urban development efficiency. Through a multidimensional comparative analysis, this study reveals the developmental challenges encountered by various cities. The results show that: statically, the overall urbanization progress of these 30 cities is commendable, but significant fluctuations are observed in the development trend. The mean super-efficiency of cities in the eastern coastal areas is relatively high, whereas other regions exhibit instances of ineffective mean super-efficiency. Dynamically, there are few periods of efficiency improvement during 2010–2019, and there is an imbalance in the sources of efficiency improvement. Shanghai and Hangzhou exhibit the best continuous dynamic improvement status, with small fluctuations in dynamic efficiency, whereas Guiyang has the worst dynamic efficiency improvement status, indicating poor urban development. This study underscores the urgent need for a balanced approach to urban development that incorporates low-carbon initiatives to ensure sustainable progress and mitigate adverse environmental impacts.