A heat-measurement-free strategy for Economic Model Predictive Control of hydronic radiators

Cost-efficient measurement of room-level heat output from hydronic radiators is a major barrier to large-scale implementation of Economic Model Predictive Control (EMPC) in residential space heating for demand-side management. This paper therefore presents a novel EMPC strategy for hydronic radiators that relies on measurements of radiator pipe temperatures as a proxy for the radiator heat output, thus eliminating the need for costly flow-based meters at each radiator in a building. Simulation-based experiments indicate that the proposed proxy-based EMPC matches the performance of its heat-based counterpart. The proxy-based EMPC achieved a 16.6 % cost reduction compared to the heat-based EMPC's 16.8 %, with no comfort violations in both cases. Furthermore, the strategy shows resilience towards uncertainties in the user-estimated radiator exponent and maximum heating capacity. The proposed EMPC scheme also allows system operators to fine-tune the balance between cost savings and return temperatures using the proxy's upper limit. The findings presented in this paper suggest that the proposed proxy-based EMPC scheme provides a practical pathway for broader applications of EMPC in hydronic-based space heating with the prospect of unlocking significant load shifting potential, cost savings for end-users, and enhanced efficiency in individual and collective energy systems. • A novel proxy-based EMPC strategy for hydronic radiators at room-level is presented. • Surface temperatures used as proxy in model for heat power measurements. • Proxy-based EMPC performance is on par with power-based EMPC performance. • Proxy method is resilient to uncertainties in estimation of radiator parameters. • The proxy method is cost-efficient and practical for EMPC of hydronic space-heating.