Climate, Disease, and Upheaval in the Turkic World in the 14th-15th Centuries

This paper examines the role of climate and disease as a major factor resulting in disruption and upheaval in the Turkic world in the 14th-15th centuries. The first issue the paper addresses is the beginning of the climatic downturn in circa 1280, which will ultimately culminate in the Little Ice Age of the late 15th-18th centuries. The paper cites recent work on the role of climate in the history of Iran. While the author has explored this issue in detail for the history of the Golden Horde, the impact of climate change on Iran in the 14th-15th centuries is a topic which has yet to be investigated adequately by historians. More importantly, climate change is associated with the spread of the Black Death, both in the original point of its spread and especially in the lower Volga River delta. The paper addresses the role of the Black Death (1346- ) as a disruptive factor in the history of the Golden Horde and the Chağatay Khanate. Citing recent research, it also considers legacy of the Black Death in the political, socio-economic, and cultural history of the Il-Khanate and what it meant for the rise of the Aqqoyunlu state. In the Golden Horde, Central Asia, and the Ottoman Empire, the Black Death led to a decline or disappearance in the earlier Islamic Turkic literary language. The earlier archair literary language was replaced by a newer literary language closer to the vernacular or spoken language of the people. There is also evidence of cultural responses to plague written in the new language.