Variability in somatic growth over time and space determines optimal season-opening date in the Oregon ocean shrimp (<i>Pandalus jordani</i>) fishery

Growth variability is a key contributor to the dynamic productivity of populations. Thus, better understanding and accounting for variation in growth can improve both tactical and strategic management. Using ocean shrimp ( Pandalus jordani) from the U.S. West Coast as a case study, we demonstrate interactions between growth and optimal fishery opening dates. While the fishery opens on 1 April, industry often delays fishing to minimize catches of small shrimp. Understanding drivers of size-at-recruitment can help managers optimize opening dates and shrimpers plan their participation in this and other fisheries. Using three decades of fishery-dependent sampling, we built a spatially, temporally, and environmentally explicit Bayesian state-space model for shrimp size-at-age. Model outputs were then used to parameterize a revenue-per-recruit model and explore how variability in size-at-recruitment impacted optimal opening dates. Shrimp recruited at smaller sizes farther north. Delaying opening would likely benefit shrimpers in areas and years with smaller shrimp and higher fishing mortality. Broadly, choosing when to open the fishery is a complex decision requiring understanding of growth, but also recruitment, economic incentives, and life history.