Climate change and extremes in the Mediterranean island of Cyprus: from historical trends to future projections

Abstract Cyprus is a European island state in the eastern Mediterranean climate change hotspot. Despite being a relatively small island, it has diverse climatic zones, ranging from semi-arid to subhumid in the mountains and humid on Mount Olympos. Given the accelerated rate of environmental change in the region, the present study aims to identify, and update observed trends of critical climate parameters, highlighting vulnerable climatic areas within the island. Moreover, since nationwide multi-model assessments of future climate conditions are limited or outdated, we aim to investigate the range of future climate projections using a 21-member EURO-CORDEX ensemble under pathways RCP2.6 and RCP8.5. Besides mean conditions, we analyze various extreme climate indicators relevant to socio-economic activities such as agriculture, biodiversity, tourism, energy and water resources. Our historical analysis revealed a statistically significant increasing temperature trend (0.4 °C–0.6 °C per decade), which is more pronounced during the summer and spring. Concerning precipitation, the observed trends are not as robust, nevertheless, the southeastern coast and the central regions near the capital city of Nicosia are substantially drier and more prone to further changes in precipitation regimes. The projections for the end of the 21st century, according to the high radiative forcing scenario (RCP8.5), indicate that Cyprus is likely to experience an annual temperature increase of over 4 °C and an approximate 20%–30% reduction in annual rainfall, relative to 1981–2000. These projections highlight an alarming trend that requires urgent attention and proactive measures to mitigate the potential impacts of climate change on the island.