Regional perspective on prospects and risks of the renewable energy in Russia

Abstract The expansion of renewable energy (RE) relies on both natural factors and socioeconomic conditions fostered at the regional level. This paper examines the key factors influencing RE development in selected Russian regions. We conducted a literature review, surveyed 250 industry experts, and analyzed reports from energy and rating agencies, along with natural resource maps, to identify specific risks and indicators. Our expert survey revealed that the most significant technical risks are low resource potential (68%), energy system surplus (68%), and the absence of transport logistics with neighboring regions (58%). Politically, the lack of additional sector initiatives (6%) was noted. Economically, the high cost of RE (56%) and insufficient experience with “green” investments (54%) were highlighted. Social factors included low unemployment rates (74%), and the absence of remote areas without power supply (72%). Environmentally, the lack of enterprises for energy unit utilization (84%), low greenhouse gas emissions (60%), and insufficient accessible territories for facilities (58%) were significant concerns. We developed risk profiles for nine Russian regions, categorizing them into leaders, intermediates, and nascent stages of RE market formation. Our findings indicate that the most impactful factors include resource potential, space limitations for energy facilities, proximity to equipment manufacturers, regional support measures, and the development of “green” investment instruments. Conversely, regional investment attractiveness had a lesser influence. On the basis of these insights, we recommend enhancing RE development through refined federal and regional support programs. We propose additional criteria for project selection: (1) minimum construction costs covered by “green” investments and (2) quantitative restrictions on new capacities, considering regional energy system status. Practical recommendations also include developing regional centers for servicing generating facilities and increasing the sector's investment attractiveness to stimulate private investment.