The Trump effect: the perpetuation of populism in US–China trade

Abstract Our article analyses the enduring influence of Donald Trump's populist narrative on United States–China trade policies under Joe Biden's administration. We extend the literature on the effect of populism and populist leaders by examining what happens after a populist leader leaves office, and to what extent an expectation of populism perpetuates a populist narrative despite a change in leadership. In the case of US–China trade, the Biden administration that followed Trump's has carried on with a populist trade narrative and protectionist policies towards China, despite predictions that the US would return to ‘normal’ economic relations after Trump left office. Through textual analysis of speeches by both administrations, we identify a narrative coherence between Trump's nationalist–populist discourse and the trade rhetoric of the Biden administration, revealing a legacy of narrative expectation that constrains policy choices. Our findings demonstrate how Trump's populist framework persists, shaping White House discourse and policy decisions in the economic realm even after he has left office, and we showcase the enduring effect of populist language in political spheres.