Uncertainty Sources in the Mechanistic Modeling of Legionella within Building Water Systems

Predicting Legionella concentrations reaching users through building water systems requires a comprehensive water quality modeling approach. We integrate various frameworks and data to test the effect of nutrient availability, temperature, chlorine, and biofilm interactions in modeling Legionella. We show that neglecting biofilm detachment underestimates concentrations up to 5.5 logs, while including it increases estimates by 4.2 logs. This study identifies critical factors and uncertainty sources for characterizing the Legionella fate and transport phenomena within buildings.