Prediction model for composite adverse pregnancy outcomes: Indonesia demographic health survey analysis

Adverse Pregnancy Outcome (APO) is the leading cause of infant mortality, particularly in low and middle-income countries. Despite no significant change in neonatal mortality rates in Indonesia over the past fifteen years, identifying the risk factors for APO can help healthcare professionals provide personalized interventions and support. This study aims to determine the determinants of APO risk in Indonesia. The cross-sectional study utilized the 2017 Indonesian Health Demographic Survey (IDHS), which included 9,752 women of reproductive age. APO, including low birth weight, early birth, and stillbirth, was the outcome of the study. The demographic characteristics and other risk factors were evaluated. To identify APO-risk-associated factors, we performed multiple logistic regression analysis. The results showed that low economic status (Adj. OR= 1.407; 1.153-1.716; p= 0.001)), living in rural areas (Adj. OR= 0.804; 0.663-0.976; p= 0.027), having a history of pregnancy or childbirth complications (Adj. OR= 4.563; 3.617-5.756; p= 0.0001), premature rupture of the membrane during pregnancy or after giving birth (Adj. OR= 1.351; 1.069-1.708; p= 0.012), antenatal visits <4 times (Adj. OR= 1.603; 1.123-2.288; p= 0.009), consumption of iron supplement tablets <90 days (Adj. OR= 1.275; 1.063-1.529; p= 0.009), and twin pregnancy (Adj. OR= 33.715; 18.587-61.153; p= 0.0001) significantly influenced the APO prevalence. The study concluded that APO risk is significantly impacted by poor obstetric history features, multiple births, low health service utilization, and sociodemographic factors. Early detection of these risk factors is essential for reducing neonatal death caused by APO.