Evolution and Analysis of Water Yield under the Change of Land Use and Climate Change Based on the PLUS-InVEST Model: A Case Study of the Yellow River Basin in Henan Province

Understanding the interrelationships between land use, climate change, and regional water yield is critical for effective water resource management and ecosystem protection. However, comprehensive insights into how water yield evolves under different land use scenarios and climate change remain elusive. This study employs the Integrated Valuation of Ecosystem Services and Trade-offs (InVEST) models, Patch-generating Land Use Simulation (PLUS) model, and Geodetector within a unified framework to evaluate the dynamics of land use, water yield, and their relationships with various factors (meteorological, social, economic, etc.). To forecast the land use/cover change (LUCC) pattern of the Yellow River Basin by 2030, three scenarios were considered: economic development priority (Scenario 1), ecological development priority (Scenario 2), and cropland development priority (Scenario 3). Climate change scenarios were constructed using CMIP6 data, representing low-stress (SSP119), medium-stress (SSP245), and high-stress (SSP585) conditions. The results show the following: (1) from 2000 to 2020, cropland was predominant in the Yellow River Basin, Henan Province, with significant land conversion to impervious land (construction land) and forest land; (2) water yield changes during this period were primarily influenced by meteorological factors, with land use changes having negligible impact; (3) by 2030, the water yield of Scenario 1 is highest among different land use scenarios, marginally surpassing Scenario 2 by 1.60 × 108 m3; (4) climate scenarios reveal significant disparities, with SSP126 yielding 54.95 × 108 m3 higher water yield than SSP245, driven predominantly by precipitation; (5) Geodetector analysis identifies precipitation as the most influential single factor, with significant interactions among meteorological and socio-economic factors. These findings offer valuable insights for policymakers and researchers in formulating land use and water resource management strategies.