Using the NAMA as a Natural Integrator to Quantify the Convective Contribution to Lower Stratospheric Water Vapor Over North America

Abstract The dynamical environment of the stratosphere, during the summer over North America, provides a natural integrator of the impact of convection in the lower stratosphere, as air can be confined for periods of a few days to more than a week. In situ data obtained during the NASA Dynamics and Chemistry of the Summer Stratosphere (DCOTSS) field campaign show increasing water vapor mixing ratios in background air as a function of time the air parcel spent within the North American Monsoon Anticyclone region. We find that water vapor added to the stratosphere by convection decreases with altitude and tends to drop below detectable limits by the 415 K isentrope in 2021 and the 430 K isentrope in 2022. Integrating between potential temperatures of 380 and 460 K we find that convection added between 20 and 32 Tg per summer to the stratosphere in 2021 and 2022. While the total amount is only 1%–4% of the amount ascending in the tropics across the tropical tropopause, small changes in the annual flux of water can have a significant effect on the radiation budget of the atmosphere. Locally, over North America we find that convection increased the water vapor mixing ratio at 380 K by as much as 40%. Tropopause‐penetrating convection is part of the yearly cycle of stratospheric water vapor and we suggest that it must be included in extratropical models to accurately predict future trends in stratospheric water vapor.