Fighting Shadows and Ghosts – A Conceptual Framework for Identification Deception Tactics (IDTs) and MARINE Approach

Western institutions uncovered the existence of "shadow fleets", usually civilian vessels engaged in overt and covert illegal maritime operations, including the illicit transportation of Russian oil in violation of Western sanctions. Ship-to-ship (STS) transfers are the way in which these operations are conducted, a pillar of Russian, Iranian, and North Korea oil smuggling tradecraft. However, the term "shadow fleet" is too broad and potentially misleading. This paper will provide an overview of the topic by introducing both a new classification framework (the Identification Deception Tactics – IDTs) and a comprehensive methodology aimed at identifying suspicious STS transfers at sea (MARINE – Methodology for Analyzing Russian oil Naval Exchanges). Lastly, this paper will introduce a proof-of-concept for a detection algorithm that automatically identifies STS transfers (COSMOS – Computational Ship-to-Ship Monitoring System). These three concepts will lay the foundation for future research on Maritime Situational Awareness (MSA) and geospatial intelligence.