ONION CRACKERS SALES FORECASTING USING ARTIFICIAL NEURAL NETWORK METHOD AND HOLT'S DOUBLE EXPONENTIAL SMOOTHING

Changes in product demand is a problem that is often faced by the industry as well as one of them is onion crackers. Tapioca flour is the main ingredient used to make onion crackers. Because the demand for crackers is always changing, this company often experiences excess or shortage of raw materials. If there is an excess of raw materials, the company must incur additional costs for the maintenance and storage of raw materials so that raw materials can be properly stored in accordance with existing standards, which of course costs a lot. Therefore, companies must plan to solve this problem by planning raw material requirements by forecasting raw material requirements using the artificial neural network method and double exponential smoothing holt. The results showed that the artificial network method had a mean square error of 0.120 and the mean square error using the double exponential smoothing method yielded a value of 206.19. Based on these two values, it can be concluded that the artificial neural network method is more accurate than the double exponential smoothing holt method. This can be seen by comparing the roat mean square error values of the two methods..