The Fogees system for forecasting particulate matter concentrations in urban areas

Air quality forecasting requires appropriate models and data sources. The Fogees system presented in this paper enables mapping, evaluation and forecasting of the level of PM x pollution in the air, for urban and suburban areas. Input data were downloaded from the Meteoblue service, the GIS database and – in the case of integration with existing measurement systems – also from local air quality monitoring stations. The system uses a diagnostic model to determine the velocity field and a Lagrange model to describe pollution dispersion. The system has an autocalibration model and uses proprietary algorithms to estimate emissions from domestic heating, transport and background pollution levels. Modular design and parallel computation facilitate simultaneous calculation of forecasts for existing emission conditions and calculations for alternative emission conditions. The system permits forecasting for the next hour and for several consecutive hours. The validation results confirm that the system reliable forecasting of PM concentrations. • Fogees provides reliable forecasts of hourly PM concentrations. • The quality of the system prediction was evaluated for 1 h and 12 h data. • Forecast calculations and emission scenario analysis can be run in parallel. • Visualization of the forecasted concentrations is available via web service.