Population Trends of Rural Regions in Japan

Medium- and long-term population trends in Japan's rural regions and factors underlying changes are surveyed. In the 20th century, because Japan was at a stage in its demographic transition with high birth and low death rates, both non-metropolitan and metropolitan areas experienced large population growths. In rural regions, social decreases continued due to migration to metropolitan areas; however, in the 20th century, natural increase compensated for the decline and population increased. The number of births continued to decline because the birth rate remained below the population replacement level, and the number of deaths inevitably increased as a large cohort entered old age. Therefore, populations of rural regions experienced natural decreases, which are expanding. As a result, most population declines in rural regions can be explained by a natural decrease. On the other hand, social decreases also contribute to population declines in rural areas. A comparison of cohort changes reveals that the rate of females remaining at place of origin is declining in some regions. In addition, social increase rates of municipalities are positively correlated with population size. From this, it can be said that the migration of urban residents to rural settlements, as reported in the media, has been limited.