Do Municipal Mergers Increase Migration?: Estimates of Migration between Old Municipal Areas Using Census Data

The hypothesis is tested that municipal mergers promote migration from peripheral areas, where a municipal office has been lost through a merger, to central areas. Multiple regression models are developed to predict migration during the period 2005-2010 between pre-merger municipal areas using year 2000 census data, which is just before the Heisei Municipal Mergers. In these models, migration is classified into four categories: internal, from periphery to center, from center to periphery, and between peripheral areas. If the hypothesis is true, migration from periphery to center should increase compared to the other categories. In fact, a regression analysis reveals that migration from periphery to center did not increase, but the opposite form of migration, from center to periphery, increased remarkably. Therefore, the results indicate that municipal mergers do not promote the centralization of population but may promote suburbanization.